Deck size & Probability - A case for (slightly) bigger deck

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Originally Posted by kamman13

Also, is it accurate in this case to just multiply the probabilities together to get the "ideal" hand probability? My recollection of stats is that technique is only allowed when the tests are completely independent from one another, which they don't seem to be in this case. Is that what your formula takes into account?

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It is not accurate to multiply them together, because they aren't independent. I don't claim my estimate is accurate!

However, as an eyeball estimate I figure it is going to be closer than the original.

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Originally Posted by dndfreak

This is what I'm saying is incorrect. You're forgetting that you looked at one more card from your deck, the unknown sacced card....

Thus all of your calculations are much worse than they should be because you're reducing the number of cards the player has actually seen. I recognize that you're not stopping to calculate exactly what each card in the opening hand. That doesn't mean that you have access to fewer cards in your deck when actually playing. I am trying to give you your alternative now and you aren't taking it.

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Ahh, ok, i see what was wrong. I didn't realise it. Glad tt i put out all my steps for all to critique.

I didn't take it, because I didn't understand your point. Thanks for pointing it out! will re-do the calculations again, based on what Ringel suggested.

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Originally Posted by Ringel

It is not accurate to multiply them together, because they aren't independent. I don't claim my estimate is accurate!

However, as an eyeball estimate I figure it is going to be closer than the original.

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Thanks Ringel, an exact estimation will be too difficult. I will just do what you proposed and we can compare the statistics between this method and my flawed method. Will still give a good feel abt the odds.

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Originally Posted by Ringel

P(picking one of 4 Kris in 6 cards in a 39 card deck)*P(picking one of 4 Puwen in 6 cards in a 38 card deck)*P(picking one of 8 Aldon/Jasmine in 6 cards from a 37 card deck)*P(picking one of 4 Jewelers in 6 cards in a 36 card deck)*P(picking one of 4 Ravens in 6 cards in a 35 card deck)

Repeat, starting at 41 cards.

Eyeball estimates: 39 cards: Perfect hand, probability 0.0599
41 cards: Perfect hand, probability 0.0495

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Oh ringel, i realised u helped me to calculate the probabilities already!

So there we have it, the probability of ideal hand with 39 cards is 5.9% and with 41 cards is 4.9%.

To me, the difference is small enough that i would consider having a 41 cards deck. Though the conclusion may differ with others.

Well personally I don't count Raven as part of the best line of play, but...

You may hear more on that in an article from me. Not this next one coming up, that's been in the works for a bit, but...

Ooh, food's done!

*dashes away*

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Originally Posted by dndfreak

Well personally I don't count Raven as part of the best line of play, but...

You may hear more on that in an article from me. Not this next one coming up, that's been in the works for a bit, but...

Ooh, food's done!

*dashes away*

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Lol, you just like to have the final word isn't it? Next time in all my articles, I need to put a disclaimer "the following example is meant for illustration purpose only and only relevant fpr the discussion. Any resemblance to real life person or deck is purely coincidental" :P

And yes! I'm eagerly waiting for the next read. I do like your writing style, and enjoyed the outs article and the land-article (the history part) a lot.

Haha, thanks. But yeah, I've already put a draft out on TJ before posting that and it was actually something I caught myself on while writing it, so I felt like throwing it out there. Don't wanna get specific though, it'll probably sit in the private forums for a week or two before it gets 'published'.

I was stuck on how to round out that post and my food actually did finish. Pretty convenient, actually.

All I mean is that t5 is too far off in this game to predict imo. Too many variables. Ideal play stops at t4 to me, exception is priests with tidal wave, but priests don't want a t1 so the odds are actually a little better for them (all calculations are after looking at +1 card)

My food just finished to!
Just thought I would share that.

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Originally Posted by dndfreak

All I mean is that t5 is too far off in this game to predict imo. Too many variables. Ideal play stops at t4 to me, exception is priests with tidal wave, but priests don't want a t1 so the odds are actually a little better for them (all calculations are after looking at +1 card)

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True. A lot more things can happen at T5, weapons, MC, tidal wave etc that determines the board control.

As some of my A1 members posted in the forums, SE has become extremely fast paced. Even at T1/T2, the game can be decided on that point. A T1 snake or a T2 Puwen sets the board nicely for subsequent actions. I been trying to push towards grabbing that early board control with my Banebow deck and find it quite effective.

But it kinda sucks that heroes like Elad and Darkclaw don't play by the rule of board control. They just ignore the events at the board. Not fun, though it's bloody effective.

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Originally Posted by CodeDomination

My food just finished to!
Just thought I would share that.

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Troll....!

(where have you been? Waiting for ppl to troll my thread and that darn kitty isn't coming in !):)

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Originally Posted by Atomzed

Troll....!

(where have you been? Waiting for ppl to troll my thread and that darn kitty isn't coming in !):)

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Someone has to :)