Deck size & Probability - A case for (slightly) bigger deck

[Atomzed]

But if one deck is the only deck that beats you naturally, then that's the ONLY deck you need disruption for. If you're playing a deck that naturally loses to multiple popular heroes/strategies, stop adding cards and go play a better deck. Do you see what I'm saying? The typical list runs 24-32 slots dedicated to winning the game. The rest is hate and draw engines. Cards like CB, retreat, shriek, acid jet, all of them are best suited for specific decks. Your own deck should already be well suited to face specific decks, so you don't need to have disruption against them and can easily afford the cut.

Yes, i understand what you are saying. I just think its a waste to change a deck (or hero) if it can be tweaked to fit into the meta. And personally, i don't like to play T1 heroes so i have to find ways to deal with them. I have a particular hero build that i can tweak to beat DC consistently, but i cant' beat Eladwen with it. I have a particular hero build that i can tweak to beat Eladwen consistently but i can't beat DC with it.

So do i change the hero? based on what u suggest, the answer seems to be yes.


@ringel, I won't increase the deck size beyond 39 for logan, see my post below

Also, you will realised that this argument of slightly bigger decks will not be applicable to all heroes. Like mages. If i playing a pure burn mages, I will never go beyond the minimum no. As you said, consistency...and the fact that there's no counter to DD now. If i playing warriors, i will also not go beyond the minimum no. Bloodfrenzy is a great card drawing engine that gives the greatest advantage for a mid-duration game. I will not want the game to go into long-duration, bec the cumulative dmg from Bloodfrenzy is going to be more significant. As such, the chances of me drawing that 2-additional cards is not going to be high.

[Ringel]

I missed this if you posted a link earlier. Do you have a deck list for your Logan?

[A1 Otto7]

Sorry if what i write has already heen mentioned but i only read a couple of posts and just wanted to add my opinion.Small decks are sure more consistnt still there are certain drawbacks that you cannot ignore if u go pro.For instance my Boris decks has certain winnies for early board control together with Aldon and banner.Sime jasmines cause it is an autoinclude.Still i so need a couple of biggies for other games.So 2-3 worms for those Gwens and Mages (i definately cannot defeat a Gwen only with winnies), and 1-2 Aeons for Human warriors and mages!!Ofcourse i need KPs so like it happens with every expensive key card i put 2!4 BFs and 4 smashing blows for those wulfies!!1-2 shrieks against Logans,Portals or evem to remove the full moon on the crucial late turn.all these end up at 37-38 but i still want so much to include 4JDs for early rush,so they are in also.I could stop here but that would lower my percentage of drawing an early BF.So 3 BS and i end up with 44 cards.Do i feel bad??NO cause i count on drawing machines and i have got to include them,plus dozens of games prove if u are right or wrong.Since we all carry so many 3cc allies (does anyone carrys less than 8??) it is sure they ar gonna get drawn soon enough.The problem usually comes with 2cc and 4cc drops cause yhese are the ones played less.Usually 3cc drops are so many and 5cc drops are drawn cause u already used a drawing machine,so the real probkem is at 2cc and 4cc.In fact only 2cc cause if u deal with your drawing machine you double the chances to hit that 4cc card on the 2 turns comming next.
Ankther exame is a Rampage.I asked myself "do i need it so much?I mean i am supposed to establish board control and kill by it,do i really want to spend 4cc for a little giveback??I didnt do it on Biris yet but i did it on Logan who doesnt have retreat and may suffer some turns being hit.This raised my deck by 1.All my warrior decks are 42-44 cards and it feels impossible and inconsistent to go with less cause i have some 4copies of cards but i have many just duplicates of a card so lowering them to 1single copy would be inconsistent

1.28 is a version that needs so many draw engines and item destruction.Add sime allies and some side cards and u get a little above 40 just because the total draw cards and item destruction cards that are added comparing to 1.27 are more than 10!As simple as that...

[Atomzed]

I missed this if you posted a link earlier. Do you have a deck list for your Logan?

I guess you are trying to demonstrate to me that there's always a possibility to swap out cards.

Let's try priests instead, since resurrection is a good card.

Look at Jerry's decklist . Assuming that because of the current meta, I have the following build:

3x Kris
4x Puwen
4x Jasmine
3x Aldon
2x Sentinel
2x Oracle
2x Raven
3x Aeon

4x Tidal Wave
4x Wizent's Staff
2x King's Pride
4x Healing Touch
4x Destroy Arms

Decided to have 4x Healing touch, to give me that additional chance of healing against Eladwen burn. Need 4 DA because of Logan/ Amber and their weapons. DA is also important against DC to destroy his items.

And I argue that adding 2 Resurrection into this deck *may* be a good idea. Because it gives you that added flexibillity in 1) facing mill decks and 2) complementing it with King's Pride as you are guarantee allies for the next few turns after resurrection.

Ok Ringel, now let's see which cards you will swap out for resurrection.

[Ringel]

I guess you are trying to demonstrate to me that there's always a possibility to swap out cards.

I'm not so skilled a player that I can tune a deck at a glance, but it gives a foundation for discussion.

Let's try priests instead, since resurrection is a good card.

Is this your deck? I'm not sold on the idea that adding Resurrection into the mix is a good idea. Currently the only mill deck is DC and how much are you improving yourself vs DC compared to hurting yourself against everyone else? In practice how often is this deck milled?

[Atomzed]

I'm not so skilled a player that I can tune a deck at a glance, but it gives a foundation for discussion.

Is this your deck? I'm not sold on the idea that adding Resurrection into the mix is a good idea. Currently the only mill deck is DC and how much are you improving yourself vs DC compared to hurting yourself against everyone else? In practice how often is this deck milled?

Me neither. But i thought its a good place for discussion.

Nope, not my deck. its Jerry (the URL is indicated in my previous post). Have never played it :P purely theorycrafting.

Anyway, i guess my arguments don't hold sway with you and DNDFreak. Actually all 3 of us are recycling our points:-
1) atomzed points: a) the difference in probability in card draw is very low b) the option to use a certain good card may be worth the drop in consistency

2) Ringel and Dndfreak: a) the drop in consistency is not worth the additional 2 cards as options b) you're better off adjusting your deck if you really want to accommodate the 2 cards.

And to some extent, I agree with the points brought up by you and Dndfreak. For the coming tourney, i will try to tune my deck to 39 cards. Will make some guess on the likely dominating meta, and reduce cards that are not effective against the meta. And hope i don't meet those heroes that the removed cards would help in

But in QM, i will still consider increasing my deck beyond 39 as I like to have a >50% chance of winning all heroes.

Cheers!

[MistahBoweh]

A good player does not need to build a deck with hate for t3 heroes they'll bump into in qms. There's a reason why it's called tier 3. Their win condition is worse than your win condition, period. You don't need disruption for decks that don't need to be disrupted.

My point goes far beyond a mere percentage point. Your don't need hate for any deck with an inferior win condition to your own. The only time you need an answer to every other deck out there is when you're playing the weakest deck in the game, so if you're doing that I reccomend a change of hero, adding a few more cards won't help you much at that point.

[A1 Otto7]

A good player does not need to build a deck with hate for t3 heroes they'll bump into in qms. There's a reason why it's called tier 3. Their win condition is worse than your win condition, period. You don't need disruption for decks that don't need to be disrupted.

My point goes far beyond a mere percentage point. Your don't need hate for any deck with an inferior win condition to your own. The only time you need an answer to every other deck out there is when you're playing the weakest deck in the game, so if you're doing that I reccomend a change of hero, adding a few more cards won't help you much at that point.

not wrong,still tell that to a DC (T1 and good win percentage) who faces a Zhanna (T2 and less win percentage).This is just an example but it proves that sometimes situational cards may make the diference.I carry just 1-2 misplaced with my Boris even though i have 4smashing blows and that is mostly for a late game's full moon against DC or portal against mages or even some bazaars.Misplaced is definately not a necessary card in a warriors deck but i chose to run 3BS with my BFs in irder to be able to carry 44-45 cards which include the 3-4 situational cards (enrage is another one which is only against other warriors!)

[MistahBoweh]

Pretty sure enrage is for eladwen, not other warriors. I think you may be doing it wrong. Post the list and I'll show you a better list (IE one with 5 less cards)

[Atomzed]

The only time you need an answer to every other deck out there is when you're playing the weakest deck in the game, so if you're doing that I reccomend a change of hero, adding a few more cards won't help you much at that point.

And this is something I disagree with totally. I don't just play SE for winning every time, I play to have a good challenge and fun. Sure, I won't torture myself with Serena, but I will like to use 2nd tier heroes to maximize their potential. 2 good example is sisyphos Banebow deck in v1.27 tourney. And the Gwen deck that got into the final of the pop-up tourney. There are runners-up, but in my mind, it more than proves themselves as good players.

Really, if I just want to win and do nothing but win-and nothing but win, I won't have stuck to 40cards deck in QM since v1.25. If I just want to win, I will just use 30-card Majiya all the way from v1.26 onwards.

Of course, that probably means that you won't see me winning any tourney I just hope that I can help my fellow guild members to win the tourney