This is an article which I originally posted in the A1 forum. Seeing that there was some discussion on deck size, i decided to re-post the article.
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The happy problem with Elementals and priests is that all of their cards are equally good, and it's tough to figure out what cards to retain/remove in a deck.
As part of my obsession with tweaking an Elementalisdeck, I have been fiddling with the hypergeometric calculator to figure out the best deck composition.
And to my surprise, the minimum deck size does not really affect the probability of crucial card draw.
In fact, it is better to increase your deck size to accommodate a crucial card, rather than swapping out with another card.
Example,
At turn 5 with a 39 card deck, with 3 PB and 3 SK, I have a 85.44% of drawing at least 1 5cc ally.
Let's say I want to increase my chances of drawing SK/ PB by turn 5. I can increase 1 card each, and say swapping out 2 eternal renewal.
At turn 5 with a 39 card deck, with 4 PB and 4 SK, I have a 93% of drawing at least 1 5cc ally. Good, an increase of 8%.
But with this card exchange, I will lose 2 crucial ER.
However, If I just add 2 5cc allies to my deck, I will increase the draw % to 91%. A drop of 2% compared to a 39-card deck, but I think its a good trade off for the additional adaptability with ER.
Putting it in % terms, replacing the ER gives me a net gain of 2% (for 5cc allies), but a loss of 100% for ER ( Not having the ER removes my option of using it, so it's as good as a 100% loss in the game).
How about the impact on other cc cards? Still very negligible. Holding all values constant except for deck size, the changes are as follow:-
Turn 1, draw at least 1x1cc allies,
77.4% (39) to 75.3% (41)
Turn 2, draw at least 1x 1&2cc allies, 94.2% (39) to 93% (41)
Turn 3, draw at least 1x 3cc allies,
82.9% (39) to 80.9% (41)
You see that the drop in % is no more than 2%.
Of course, having said all the above, a lower card deck is still more consistent than a higher card deck.
But there *may* be a sweet spot for slightly bigger decks, where you lose negligible consistency for the added adaptability. This is especially true for cards that are used typically only 1 time, late in the game, but can change the flow of the game. Cards like resurrection, eternal renewal and soul reaper.
Follow-up comment
Yup, this perspective works best for cards that is a) only cast 1 per game b) typically cast late, say T10. As i mentioned, it works for cards like resurrection and ER.
Cards like Tidal wave or WoTF, which you NEED by a specific turn, you better off include more of the card.
The implication of my post for me is that for a priest deck or elemental deck, instead of cutting down 2 cards to put in 2x Resurrection
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