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  1. #1
    Design Team Gondorian's Avatar
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    GDC's Draw Deck Simulator

    I thought it might be helpful to make a tool that simulates your starting hand and early draws, so you can see how screwed or lucky you will be with your latest deck.

    You can try it out here: Give it a try

    Note: You must enter your deck string in the same format that you see when you make your deck with Orca's deckbuilder.

    Please post your feedback here and I will endeavour to improve it!

  2. #2
    Senior Member jiminee's Avatar
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    In your column that states "Start", "Turn 1", "Turn 2", etc. does start mean you're going first or going second? Going first means you only have 6 cards to begin with, while going second your start means you have 7 cards. Calculations could then be off by 1 card depending on the scenario.

    Edit: I think it's cool by the way. Thanks.
    Last edited by jiminee; 05-26-2011 at 11:03 PM. Reason: added edit comment

  3. #3
    Design Team Gondorian's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by jiminee View Post
    In your column that states "Start", "Turn 1", "Turn 2", etc. does start mean you're going first or going second? Going first means you only have 6 cards to begin with, while going second your start means you have 7 cards. Calculations could then be off by 1 card depending on the scenario.
    Start means your starting hand of 7 cards.

    Turn 1 means after your have drawn 1 card. I agree that this is completely wrong if you have gone first, since you don't get to draw a card until Turn 2.

    I will fix this by renaming the headings, to "Draw 1", "Draw 2" etc. This also then works for when you are using Majiya or any other way to draw extra cards.

    Does that make sense?

  4. #4
    Senior Member jiminee's Avatar
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    Yes, it does.

    Do you mind if I make a suggestion? I'd like to suggest to add an option at the beginning to choose between going first or going second. I think having this will provide more clarity. It will also provide an option for users to view the probability statistics either going first or second. Just my 2 cents.

    In any case, I like it. I think it will be useful, especially to those that are trying to build their decks and are having a hard time figuring how often they'll draw a particular card.

  5. #5
    Senior Member putakti's Avatar
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    nice tools men! i love it

  6. #6
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    Just curious: why do cards that exist in the same number have different percentages?

  7. #7
    Design Team Gondorian's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by bob21218 View Post
    Just curious: why do cards that exist in the same number have different percentages?
    I simulate 10,000 games behind-the-scenes and then give the percentages of how many times at least one copy of that card was in your hand at each stage out of those 10,000 games.

    I know it can be done with fancy formula, but then there would be no need for a simulator and I wouldn't get to write Perl code for fun!

  8. #8
    Design Team Gondorian's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by jiminee View Post
    Do you mind if I make a suggestion? I'd like to suggest to add an option at the beginning to choose between going first or going second. I think having this will provide more clarity. It will also provide an option for users to view the probability statistics either going first or second. Just my 2 cents.
    Suggestions are very welcome. I'm not sure about the option to go first or second. You don't get to choose in the real game, and any extra drawing will throw things off if you are trying to work out what turn what card might arrive.

    In a future version of the simulator, I will take the casting cost of cards into account and show when a card will be in your hand and playable, based on the number of resources available (assuming you sacrificed each turn).

    In an even later version, I will allow you to go through the pain of sacrificing each turn to see what you had to ditch to be able to play your beloved Soul Seeker on turn 5. If enough people used the simulator, I could collect stats about the most-sacrificed cards and other things like that.

  9. #9
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    lol not sure what the cause is but the percentages are off a bit. For example for my opening hand: I have 4x of Jasmine Puwen, Into the Forest, and Seeker. They are all 4x but the odds of being the first card I draw they each carry a different chance. Why is that? Jasmine 52.7, Puwen 52.0, Forest 52.7, Seeker 51.9. Otherwise great job, both to you and whoever created deckmeta
    Guild: Marksmen
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  10. #10
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    Quote Originally Posted by GondorianDotCom View Post
    I know it can be done with fancy formula, but then there would be no need for a simulator and I wouldn't get to write Perl code for fun!
    You could still write the code and it would likely be faster ;-)

    a & other = (4 35)
    at least one a in 6 cards: 0.502498
    at least one a in 7 cards: 0.562802
    at least one a in 8 cards: 0.617451
    at least one a in 9 cards: 0.666813
    at least one a in 10 cards: 0.711238
    at least one a in 11 cards: 0.751067
    at least one a in 12 cards: 0.786629
    at least one a in 13 cards: 0.818239
    at least one a in 14 cards: 0.846202
    at least one a in 15 cards: 0.87081
    at least one a in 16 cards: 0.892342
    at least one a in 17 cards: 0.911065
    at least one a in 18 cards: 0.927235
    at least one a in 19 cards: 0.941095
    at least one a in 20 cards: 0.952876
    at least one a in 21 cards: 0.962797
    at least one a in 22 cards: 0.971064
    at least one a in 23 cards: 0.977873
    at least one a in 24 cards: 0.983404
    at least one a in 25 cards: 0.98783
    at least one a in 26 cards: 0.991307
    at least one a in 27 cards: 0.993982
    at least one a in 28 cards: 0.995988
    at least one a in 29 cards: 0.997447
    at least one a in 30 cards: 0.998468
    at least one a in 31 cards: 0.999149
    at least one a in 32 cards: 0.999574
    at least one a in 33 cards: 0.999818
    at least one a in 34 cards: 0.999939
    at least one a in 35 cards: 0.999988
    at least one a in 36 cards: 1.0
    at least one a in 37 cards: 1.0
    at least one a in 38 cards: 1.0
    at least one a in 39 cards: 1.0



    a & other = (3 36)
    at least one a in 6 cards: 0.402998
    at least one a in 7 cards: 0.457271
    at least one a in 8 cards: 0.508152
    at least one a in 9 cards: 0.55575
    at least one a in 10 cards: 0.600175
    at least one a in 11 cards: 0.641536
    at least one a in 12 cards: 0.679943

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