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  1. #11
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    Exclamation

    To answer Gondarian's questions:
    1) The best combo is:
    T1 Birgitte Skullborn
    T2 Aetherborn Wisp
    T3 Glimmer of Hope (discard Tenacious Buccaneer x2) summon Abomination Factory (discard Bucanneer) attack for 5
    T4 Aetherborn wisp Glimmer of Hope / AF again; attack for 8 plus 3 per buccaneer

    2) What happens once you've done it: at turn 4 you have done c. 20 damage, and T5 enough to kill any hero. At the end of turn 4 you have an 8/8, a 5/5, two 3/3, and 0/2 with protector

    3) Chance of getting the hand. You need to draw 2AW, 1BS, 2TB, 1GOH (the AF is pulled from the deck by ability). Let's say you go 1st, so no draw in T1, and you have 4 of each of those cards in a 40-card deck. By T4, you will have drawn 6 (starting hand) + 3 (1 a turn) + 2 (GOH) = 10 cards. So the question is, what is the likelihood of drawing what you need given it's prevalence, in 10 cards. You can work this out here: http://www.unseelie.org/cgi-bin/cardco.cgi

    There is a 71% chance of drawing 1 target card out of 4 available with 10 draws from a 39-card deck; to draw a target card from 3 available (ie after you have the first) from a 38-card deck is 61%, and so on. We can work out the chance of getting the above hand to be 11% - one in 9 games is the nuts hand. BUT you don't need all those cards to make it very strong - just BS, AW and GOH make it work (this gets a 5/5 out on T3). Even just AW and GOH is powerful; 28%

    4) What scews the combo if it goes off perfectly? If it works, you can do enough damage to nearly kill the hero on T5, and finish off with fireball for example. So whatever is going to stop it only has 4 turns:
    T1 - there is nothing that can kill BS; Kristofer Wild can come out
    T2 - Now You're Mine can kill the BS; KW can kill BS. AW is now out
    T3 - Fireball can kill BS; Rampant Kyrgon can kill BS; another NYM can kill AW
    T4 - if you haven't killed AW, it's now at 8 health - so nothing really here (because you spent your previous turns killing BS)
    T5 - lots - tidal wave, anklebreaker etc. But you are on about 4-6 health, so fireball kills you

    In short, there isn't much that can stop it. Basically, you're looking at 2cc items that do 2 damage; the lsit is pretty short:
    - Shocking Grasp x2
    - Fireball then Transmogrification Curse (thanks Airact!)
    - Now you're mine x2

    In addition, these cards are limited by class - Wulven, Elemental and Mage only. And even if you have 4 of the required card, there is only c 25% chance of drawing 2 by turn 3. Boomerang is available to all, and the ability can kill the wisp (as long as a buccaneer is not out); I don't see many people carrying 4x boomerang just for this though.

    5) What is the opponent doing? See above; or rage-quit.
    Last edited by trevorJacobs; 05-12-2014 at 09:35 PM.

  2. #12
    Devoted Fan Gondorian's Avatar
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    If someone could give answers to the numbered questions in the OP, that would be great. Thanks to those of you who have tried so far.

    EDIT: Thanks trevorJacobs!

  3. #13
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    One other observation - making it unique does not solve the problem. With only one on the board (behind BS), it is still an 8/8 by T4 with very few (or zero, depending on class) ways of stopping it. This is much larger than anything else at T4 (largest attack at T4 is 4, with no more than 4 health; largest health is 6 with no more than 2 attack). The closest is Gravemonger who is 6/6 only if you have 6 graveyard cards and exile one.
    Last edited by trevorJacobs; 05-12-2014 at 05:28 PM.

  4. #14
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    Quote Originally Posted by Gondorian View Post
    EDIT: Thanks trevorJacobs!
    No problem; message me if you want to go through anything in detail.

    Some data i don't have: proportion of games with decks like this that win. Presumably, Wulven could look at this? I'm happy to do the analysis if they can share the data?

  5. #15
    Senior Member Snowstalker's Avatar
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    1) The combo is Wisp + Glimmer of Hope or Abomination Factory and Buccaneer. The strenght of the deck is, that you don't need all the cards and it works still very well. You have guaranteed Factory T3/4. When you draw Factory in starting hand and you don't have Wisps, you can't still play Buccaneer T2, which is still very powerful, for example. You try to dig for Bucs with Glimmer, but you can discard them with Factory too. You can simply dig for cards you are missing. You can return Bucs with Road Less Travelled after atack and then play them again with Factory for free. You can do all this with just 4 resources or so. You can pull Dagger of Fate as you like, when you need additional 3 damage. Birgitte and Fortified Wisp just spice things up. Any of the cards in the deck is really necessary, maybe except of Factory, which is guaranteed T3. It just works extremely well together, the deck is very flexible.

    2) The board is flooded with Bucs and Wisps. The opponent has to try to take care of Wisp and is beaten badly by the Bucs in the meantime. You don't really need to grow Wisps to crazy numbers, it's just a bonus.

    3) Pretty high, you don't need to complete the combo to make it work well.

    4) When it goes perfectly, probably nothing. Still, you can end up top decking when you don't get any draw, had bad starting hand and opponent was fast enough. Nevertheless, there is no 100% auto pilot playing.

    5) They are trying to get rif off Wisps and Birgittes (DMT, Karash, Fireball, Banebow's ability...). They aren't trying to remove Abomination Factory.

    6) Making the Wisp or Buc unique, cap the Wisp, make the Buc 2/3, make the Factory 2 durability, make the Glimmer 3cc would be possible ways to nerf the deck, when DT decides to do so.

  6. #16
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    To be absolutely clear, the above analysis shows that in many games, this deck can put out an 8/8 on turn 4, with nothing (or very little) that the opponent can do about it. This is a fact

    Where opinion comes in: i don't think the game should allow a mechanism that your opponent cannot do anything about. It's one thing not to pack item destruction, and get done over by What Big Teeth (that's your fault for not bringing item destruction); it's another thing to lose where thre is absolutely nothing you could have done at all with the cards available to you.

    This is why it's so emotive - i want there always to be a chance i might win; Aramia-Wisp removes this. Which in essence means it's not a game anymore.
    Last edited by trevorJacobs; 05-12-2014 at 09:35 PM.

  7. #17
    Senior Member Airact's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by trevorJacobs View Post
    In short, the only thing that can stop it is two Now You're Mine in a row; only available to Wulven
    Fireball -> Transmog. Curse?

  8. #18
    Senior Member WrathOfCroft's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by trevorjacobs View Post
    to be absolutely clear, the above analysis shows that in half of games, this deck can put out an 8/8 on turn 4, with nothing (or very little) that the opponent can do about it. This is a fact

    where opinion comes in: I don't think the game should allow a mechanism that your opponent cannot do anything about. It's one thing not to pack item destruction, and get done over by what big teeth (that's your fault for not bringing item destruction); it's another thing to lose where this is nothing you could have done at all with the cards available to you, (assuming you still build a sensible deck and don't carry 4x boomerang to protect yourself against aramia).

    This is why it's so emotive - i want there always to be a chance i might win; aramia-wisp removes this. Which in essence means it's not a game anymore.
    ^ this
    IGN A1 WrathOfCroft

    The Unique Never Assimilate

  9. #19
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    Quote Originally Posted by Airact View Post
    Fireball -> Transmog. Curse?
    Right you are - amending original post
    Last edited by trevorJacobs; 05-12-2014 at 05:23 PM.

  10. #20
    Devoted Fan Gondorian's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by trevorJacobs View Post
    Right you are - amending original post
    You missed my comment mentioning Boooomerang too. Any hero can use it.

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