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  1. #1
    Senior Member Pat Jay's Avatar
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    Rating and Win Rate - What's your opinion?

    Hi all,

    Just wanted your opinion on the relationship between one's rating and win rate?

    Would it be plausible for me to assume the following?

    • To achieve a stable rating of 100, i would need a win rate of 50%
    • To achieve a stable rating of 150, i would need a win rate of 55%
    • To achieve a stable rating of 200, i would need a win rate of 60%
    • To achieve a stable rating of 250, i would need a win rate of 65%
    • To achieve a stable rating of 300, i would need a win rate of 70%
    • To achieve a stable rating of 350, i would need a win rate of 75%


    Thank you for your help!

  2. #2
    DP Visionary Preybird's Avatar
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    I think your numbers are a tad high. I was sitting in the 300+ in season 7 (last time I tracked stats) with approximately 63-66% win rate.
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  3. #3
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    your numbers are way off
    i can keep 300 with 60% wins of course i don't keep track but it FEELS like 60% =p

  4. #4
    Senior Member Pat Jay's Avatar
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    thanks for your feedback guys!

    on closer inspection on my win / loss records... i agree with your all in that the numbers should be lower

    i also think the win rate numbers should increase exponentially rather than linearly since the ratings should plot to form +ve distribution rather than a normal one

    so i now propose the following

    • To achieve a stable rating of 100, i would need a win rate of 50%
    • To achieve a stable rating of 150, i would need a win rate of 51%
    • To achieve a stable rating of 200, i would need a win rate of 53%
    • To achieve a stable rating of 250, i would need a win rate of 56%
    • To achieve a stable rating of 300, i would need a win rate of 60%
    • To achieve a stable rating of 350, i would need a win rate of 65%


    Hope this is a bit more accurate

  5. #5
    Senior Member Alien Fungus's Avatar
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    Isn't your rating also determined also by who you beat ? The rating of your opponent. I don't think a 60% win rate against opponents whose average is say 170 would be the same if your opponents average was 270. Or does this balance out as you draw higher opponents as your rating increases ( sometimes )

  6. #6
    Moderator danae's Avatar
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    I've found that the percentage win really depends on the rating of your opponents. The higher up you are in ranking, the more drastic your drop in rating will be if you lose because you are more likely to meet lower rated players. So if 350 was the number one rating, the win rate will have to be a lot higher than 65% to keep it stable. I think rather than using rating you might want to consider percentile.

  7. #7
    Senior Member Pat Jay's Avatar
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    thanks for your feedback guys!

    you're all right. it does depend on the person you are versing. so the theory is... as you climb the rating scale... the higher your rating... the more likely you are to matched with someone with a lower rating... which means you need to win a higher percentage of games to keep your rating stable.

    assuming that the top player is around the rating 380 like alphaomega in season 8

    i propose the following

    • To achieve a stable rating of 100, i would need a win rate of 50%
    • To achieve a stable rating of 150, i would need a win rate of 51%
    • To achieve a stable rating of 200, i would need a win rate of 53%
    • To achieve a stable rating of 250, i would need a win rate of 57%
    • To achieve a stable rating of 300, i would need a win rate of 63%
    • To achieve a stable rating of 350, i would need a win rate of 75%


    Hope this is a bit more accurate

  8. #8
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    i think you'll have higher than 100 rating at 50%

  9. #9
    Senior Member Pat Jay's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Sprinkles View Post
    i think you'll have higher than 100 rating at 50%
    Hm yes you're right most people have a rating higher than 100 and so it should be lower than 50%

    I asked Kyle what the median rating was and he's answer was 158...

    So assuming the top rating is 380... I propose the following

    • To achieve a stable rating of 100, i would need a win rate of 40%
    • To achieve a stable rating of 150, i would need a win rate of 50%
    • To achieve a stable rating of 200, i would need a win rate of 52%
    • To achieve a stable rating of 250, i would need a win rate of 56%
    • To achieve a stable rating of 300, i would need a win rate of 62%
    • To achieve a stable rating of 350, i would need a win rate of 75%


    Hope this is a bit more accurate

  10. #10
    Europe Regional (Winter 2012) Champion jacqui's Avatar
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    win rate is not as relevant as your opponents rating. if every opponent you face has a lower rating than you your rating will drop even with a 75% win rate

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