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  1. #11
    Senior Member Alzorath's Avatar
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    For casual observation of patterns with a fairly large chance of statistical error? a few hundred deck switches (I switch decks every 3-4 games, if not more, so my playstyle is actually conducive to casual testing of this)

    For low statistical error? you'd want several thousand deck switches.

    I can't provide a proof that would undeniably prove that the RNG is broken, but I can provide "better than anecdotal evidence" with my sample set.

    As an aside, if I were to test the RNG right now, some awkward results in-game recently would actually lead me to wanting to test "CotC Only" vs "CotC/DP Hybrid" vs "DotP only" test sets in addition to just the RNG. I would recommend this for anyone looking to provide a statistical proof for it.


    Some criteria I would set forth if I were to set up a test set:

    Create 3x "CotC" decks, 3x "Hybrid" decks, and 3x "DP" Decks. each using 10 cards (4 of each) - 41 card deck w/ hero. (Hybrid deck would use 5/5 split)

    Initial Test - Switch decks between each game, enter 99 games (rotating to the next deck for each game) - track opening hand and first 3 turns of draw.

    Example:
    Game 1 - CotC Deck 1
    Game 2 - CotC Deck 2
    Game 3 - CotC Deck 3
    Game 4 - CotC Deck 1
    Game 5 - CotC Deck 2
    Game 6 - CotC Deck 3
    etc.

    (this would result in 33 tests with each deck)

    Indicate frequency of "all 1 of", "2 of" , and "3 of" in opening hand. Same for successive draws. - Statistically speaking 2 of is reasonable, a high rate of 3 ofs would be problematic.

    After this, enter 33 games with each deck without a rotation between, and track these results as well for a comparison.

    (there would still be a high probability of error, but this sample set could show leanings, especially if the leanings are statistically 'large')


    You could also do a large-format test using a Human "All Cards" and a Shadow "All Cards" and flip between the two to get a different statistical set. (could isolate CotC, DP, and Hybrid setups as well)

  2. #12
    DP Visionary Warr Byrd's Avatar
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    The key to testing this is, of course, actually recording every game, not just games where you get bad draws. If you play 10 games and get two really bad draws, two really good draws, and six average draws, you will probably remember the really bad draws more than the really good draws and think more negatively about your average draws. Part of this is human memory. Part of it is that most people really, really don't understand the concept of random.
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  3. #13
    Shadow Era's Avatar
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    The key to testing this is don't use multiple copies of any card. Because you can't know if you get the same fireball or if it was one of the other 3 copies that you have in your deck

  4. #14
    Member innoby's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Kyle View Post
    The key to testing this is don't use multiple copies of any card. Because you can't know if you get the same fireball or if it was one of the other 3 copies that you have in your deck
    Well I didn't think to see if this was a google necro or not, but anyways....

    The RNG in the game IS clumpy. If you have one of you will typically see the other one (I've got a lot of two only cards in my deck) with in 2 or 3 draws. The 4 of cards is the REAL problem. I'll almost always see 3 of a kind or more with in 2 or three draws.

    Here's the REAL Kicker, 3 of a kind in your deck tend to get distributed properly. So Kyle if you would check your RNG and make sure it doesn't have ANY CODE THAT MIGHT GIVE IT A EVEN NUMBER BIAS.

    90% of the time I'm forced to sacrifice shit I will NEED later because I have it NOW and the shit I need NOW isn't duplicated in my hand. Then after I get through that I'll draw duplicates of the crap I needed THEN.

    Better yet set your RNG with a check that sees if you drew a copy last draw.
    Last edited by innoby; 10-08-2013 at 11:27 PM.

  5. #15
    Senior Member NachyoChez's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by innoby View Post
    Well I didn't think to see if this was a google necro or not, but anyways....

    The RNG in the game IS clumpy. If you have one of you will typically see the other one (I've got a lot of two only cards in my deck) with in 2 or 3 draws. The 4 of cards is the REAL problem. I'll almost always see 3 of a kind or more with in 2 or three draws.

    Here's the REAL Kicker, 3 of a kind in your deck tend to get distributed properly. So Kyle if you would check your RNG and make sure it doesn't have ANY CODE THAT MIGHT GIVE IT A EVEN NUMBER BIAS.

    90% of the time I'm forced to sacrifice shit I will NEED later because I have it NOW and the shit I need NOW isn't duplicated in my hand. Then after I get through that I'll draw duplicates of the crap I needed THEN.

    Better yet set your RNG with a check that sees if you drew a copy last draw.
    The RNG we use utilizes true randomization for shuffling, which means that clumps can and will happen, as will dry spells. Setting it to manually check for previous copies of cards before giving another steps away from the randomization and variances that make TCGs popular.

  6. #16
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    Don't be so quick to dismiss this wulven. I do notice that my deck seems less shuffled after making a new deck, not as noticeable when switching constructed decks.

    How many shuffles are done when a deck saves? Perhaps that could be added so deck is preshuffled, as it were.
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  7. #17
    Shadow Era's Avatar
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    Oh please, no! Not this again!!

    This has been thoroughly investigated and statistically and mathematically disproved. Silly humans!

    I'm closing this thread because it's spreading disinformation.

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