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  1. #21
    Member GuestOfHonor's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by shannong View Post
    When building decks and evaluating how consistently they'll play, many people struggle with how to calculate the probability of:
    1. Getting at least one specific card A by the turn they need it to appear, while balancing that probability against having too many of that card when they don't want it to appear.
    2. Getting a combo of card A AND card B, either by the same turn or card A on turn X and card B on turn Y.
    3. Getting EITHER card A OR card B by a specific turn.
    4. Extrapolating from specific cards to general events, the odds of both event A AND event B happening, or of EITHER event A OR event B happening.
    Unfortunately, shannong appears to be as much a victim as anyone in this struggle. Most of the OP is just plain wrong, and with over 10,000 views there still hasn't been much correction. Why has this been stickied?
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  2. #22
    Devoted Fan Gondorian's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by GuestOfHonor View Post
    Unfortunately, shannong appears to be as much a victim as anyone in this struggle. Most of the OP is just plain wrong, and with over 10,000 views there still hasn't been much correction. Why has this been stickied?
    A better question would be "Why hasn't this been unstickied?"

    I have addressed that now.

  3. #23
    Member GuestOfHonor's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by GondorianDotCom View Post
    A better question would be "Why hasn't this been unstickied?"

    I have addressed that now.
    Fair enough! I may give explaining this probability stuff a go myself.
    The Deck Builder (Not built for mobile)

    Wreon's Female Wulven
    Warrior of the Blue Phoenix
    Greatness, Reborn

  4. #24
    Senior Member Pat Jay's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by LiefKlynKonyntje View Post
    I don't think this is correct. The standard formula is: P(x OR y) = P(x) + P(y) - P(x AND y), which in case of independent events x and y reduces to P(x) + P(y) - P(x)P(y).

    Just taking the average of the probabilities can never work, not even as approximation, as P(x OR y) should always be larger than both P(x) and P(y)

    Yes I also think this is the case. Because I was confused by this and so I asked this question in yahoo answers

    http://au.answers.yahoo.com/question...9013107AAtdvgS

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