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  1. #21
    Member GuestOfHonor's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by shannong View Post
    When building decks and evaluating how consistently they'll play, many people struggle with how to calculate the probability of:
    1. Getting at least one specific card A by the turn they need it to appear, while balancing that probability against having too many of that card when they don't want it to appear.
    2. Getting a combo of card A AND card B, either by the same turn or card A on turn X and card B on turn Y.
    3. Getting EITHER card A OR card B by a specific turn.
    4. Extrapolating from specific cards to general events, the odds of both event A AND event B happening, or of EITHER event A OR event B happening.
    Unfortunately, shannong appears to be as much a victim as anyone in this struggle. Most of the OP is just plain wrong, and with over 10,000 views there still hasn't been much correction. Why has this been stickied?
    The Deck Builder (Not built for mobile)

    Wreon's Female Wulven
    Warrior of the Blue Phoenix
    Greatness, Reborn

  2. #22
    Lead Developer / Designer Gondorian's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by GuestOfHonor View Post
    Unfortunately, shannong appears to be as much a victim as anyone in this struggle. Most of the OP is just plain wrong, and with over 10,000 views there still hasn't been much correction. Why has this been stickied?
    A better question would be "Why hasn't this been unstickied?"

    I have addressed that now.

  3. #23
    Member GuestOfHonor's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by GondorianDotCom View Post
    A better question would be "Why hasn't this been unstickied?"

    I have addressed that now.
    Fair enough! I may give explaining this probability stuff a go myself.
    The Deck Builder (Not built for mobile)

    Wreon's Female Wulven
    Warrior of the Blue Phoenix
    Greatness, Reborn

  4. #24
    Senior Member Pat Jay's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by LiefKlynKonyntje View Post
    I don't think this is correct. The standard formula is: P(x OR y) = P(x) + P(y) - P(x AND y), which in case of independent events x and y reduces to P(x) + P(y) - P(x)P(y).

    Just taking the average of the probabilities can never work, not even as approximation, as P(x OR y) should always be larger than both P(x) and P(y)

    Yes I also think this is the case. Because I was confused by this and so I asked this question in yahoo answers

    http://au.answers.yahoo.com/question...9013107AAtdvgS

  5. #25
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    How would you calculate the probability of a draw when that draw’s probability is contingent on another previous draw? Fox example:

    Aramia and 56 cards in deck
    4x Bad Santa
    4x Loom of Fate
    4x Isadora

    Should be roughly ~75% to draw Loom or Santa by turn 2
    I use Loom/Santa to provide three cards by turn 5
    Aramia also draws a card on turn 4/5
    By turn 5 this gives a sample size of 14/15 depending on start position

    This means if I successfully draw Loom/Santa on turn 2 I then have ~75% to draw Isadora on turn 5. However what I really need to know is what is the overall probability of drawing Isadora by turn 5 that accounts for the possibility of missing the other draw. Is it as simple as figuring 75% of 75% or is there something else? Also how do I do that lol. Ty!

  6. #26
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    Yes, It was just a bit of fun really, and one of my initial ways of trying to add value here. Now I have the articles, deckbuilder, leagues, tournaments, so I don't really promote the simulator any more.

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