Amber the death-racer

[chanson311]

79% win rate is not speculation or a vacuum.

And valiant defender vs Mage? You will have better board control playing puwen.

[The Eyes]

Win rate and potential damage in the first 5 rounds actually are vacuum stats that ignore relevant data that have a direct bearing upon both of those stats. What about the person playing the deck, how long they've played it for, percentage chance of getting the opening drawn you want, average actual damage in the first 5 rounds (now there's a stat that means something), performance against specific deck types, performance against T1 and T1.5 deck types, etc.? Without these other stats the two you are listing mean little. Yes, I get it the only stat that matters is the win ratio... well yes and no. Wins against noobs and mid level decks, wins against 250+ ranked decks, or a combination of the two? Other factors matter.

Going back to your God draw hand though, damage efficiency is nice and on a perfect draw there are lots of decks that can deal in the low to mid 20s in the first 4 to 5 rounds if they get the right draw. That being said doing that damage happens exctly how often for your deck? Once every 10 games? 20? 50? Has it ever happened for your deck? How many times out of how many games? And how many times during those same games has it gotten a god awful draw of no turn 1 or 2 plays? How about bad draws of either no turn 1 or no turn 2 play? How about fair draws of two of three ally plays in the first three turns? See what I'm getting at? Your stat is living in a vacuum and goes out the window when you actually start playing the game and have an opponent picking off your cards, playing his own cards you have to counter, etc.

Sorry, brother, but you can't pick the stats you want and ignore significant others, especially when they have bearing on the stats you are using.

[kamman13]

Kinda ironic that your "counter" effectively counters your version of the "ideal play".

Turn1) Play kris (never ever play birgette on turn1, she is just a lightning rod for attacks)
1) Opponent plays his own kris to counter your kris.

Turn2) valiant defender (now you can play your own allies without fear of reprisal from enemy allies)
Turn3) Jasmine
3) Fireballs your jasmine
Turn4) Aldon+birgette
4) If facing boris or eladwen, use hero ability to off your aldon (Still possible if they have any nukes)
Turn5+) Dig in your heels
5) Supernovas the board on turn 5 if need be.

I think kamman13 does not mean that the ideal play happens all the time but just used it to show that Amber is potentially faster than Eladwen who was commonly regarded as the Queen of Deathracing.

In practise, more often than not, I think T2 BF will still be a beneficial play even though you sacrifice a bit of damage early.

Was going to The original post, but this says everything I want to say

[kamman13]

@ The eyes

Yes this is not a real game circumstance ( though I have won games by t5 before, mostly against slow priest or dc decks). But looking at things in vacuum does offer useful insight. It let's you know which deck is the beat-down for instance ( see he-mans article on it if you don't know what I mean). Of course in many real games amber won't do this much damage, but knowing that this deck can potentially do this much damage let's you know how threatening this deck is and how you should play against it. You can never learn this sort of info without considering things in a vacuum.

Also, my deck can quite consistently get a t1, t2, t3 ally, and a t4 jd + draw or a war banner, I'd say about 70-80% of the time. If you realize that you don't always need a t1 ally, and the t2 play can also be draw, ideal draw consistency can be around >85%. Can't really expect for much more.