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  1. #41
    Senior Member Caitlyn0's Avatar
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    anyone want to see the math?

    i posted some of it in the A1 forum, i can post it here if people are interested.
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  2. #42
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    yes. please

  3. #43
    Senior Member Caitlyn0's Avatar
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    Total allies: 40 Total Other: 60 Total Cards: 100

    1cc ALLIES: instance: 6
    total cards in hand: 6, % of only 1 target: .276, % of >1 target: .040, 0 target: .683, % of >0: 31.7
    total cards in hand: 7, % of only 1 target: .305, % of >1 target: .050, 0 target: .69, % of >0: 36.1
    total cards in hand:10, % of only 1 target: .369, % of >1 target: .109, 0 target: .522, % of >0: 47.7

    2cc ALLIES: instance: 6 (same as 1cc allies)

    3cc ALLIES: instance: 20
    total cards in hand: 6, % of only 1 target: .403, % of >1 target: .345, 0 target: .252, % of >0: 74.8
    total cards in hand: 7, % of only 1 target: .375, % of >1 target: .426, 0 target: .198, % of >0: 80.1
    total cards in hand:10, % of only 1 target: .268, % of >1 target: .637, 0 target: .095, % of >0: 90.5

    5cc ALLIES: instance: 10
    total cards in hand: 6, % of only 1 target: .369, % of >1 target: .151, 0 target: .522, % of >0: 47.8
    total cards in hand: 7, % of only 1 target: .389, % of >1 target: .144, 0 target: .467, % of >0: 53.3
    total cards in hand:10, % of only 1 target: .408, % of >1 target: .262, 0 target: .330, % of >0: 67.0

    TOTAL ALLIES: instance: 40
    total cards in hand: 6, % of only 1 target: .183, % of >1 target: .744, 0 target: .042, % of >0: 95.8
    total cards in hand: 7, % of only 1 target: .125, % of >1 target: .850, 0 target: .024, % of >0: 97.6
    total cards in hand:10, % of only 1 target: .034, % of >1 target: .961, 0 target: .004, % of >0: 99.6

    ITEM DESTRUCTION 10 (same as 5cc allies)

    WEAPONS: 20 (same as 3cc allies, DUAL WIELD is counted)

    NET DRAW: instance: 12 (BF, BAZ, BS only)
    total cards in hand: 6, % of only 1 target: .394, % of >1 target: .109, 0 target: .455, % of >0: 54.5
    total cards in hand: 7, % of only 1 target: .406, % of >1 target: .197, 0 target: .397, % of >0: 60.3
    total cards in hand:10, % of only 1 target: .396, % of >1 target: .343, 0 target: .261, % of >0: 73.9

    GROSS DRAW: instance: 22 (BF, BAZ, BS, SK, BELLA, DR)
    total cards in hand: 6, % of only 1 target: .390, % of >1 target: .395, 0 target: .215, % of >0: 78.5
    total cards in hand: 7, % of only 1 target: .353, % of >1 target: .482, 0 target: .165, % of >0: 83.5
    total cards in hand:10, % of only 1 target: .232, % of >1 target: .693, 0 target: .072, % of >0: 92.7



    COMPARE SOME OF THAT WITH A FEW SAMPLES FROM THE 40 (41) CARD DECK

    TOTAL ALLIES: instance: 16
    total cards in hand: 6, % of only 1 target: .177, % of >1 target: .788, 0 target: .035, % of >0: 96.4
    total cards in hand: 7, % of only 1 target: .116, % of >1 target: .866, 0 target: .018, % of >0: 98.1
    total cards in hand:10, % of only 1 target: .024, % of >1 target: .973, 0 target: .002, % of >0: 99.8

    3cc ALLIES: instance: 6
    total cards in hand: 6, % of only 1 target: .435, % of >1 target: .215, 0 target: .350, % of >0: 65.0
    total cards in hand: 7, % of only 1 target: .433, % of >1 target: .279, 0 target: .289, % of >0: 56.3
    total cards in hand:10, % of only 1 target: .374, % of >1 target: .474, 0 target: .155, % of >0: 84.5

    TOTAL DRAW: instance: 8 (TOTAL WEAPONS ARE 8 AS WELL)
    total cards in hand: 6, % of only 1 target: .420, % of >1 target: .344, 0 target: .236, % of >0: 76.4
    total cards in hand: 7, % of only 1 target: .389, % of >1 target: .431, 0 target: .180, % of >0: 81.9
    total cards in hand:10, % of only 1 target: .265, % of >1 target: .659, 0 target: .076, % of >0: 92.4

    ITEM DESTRUCTION: instance: 4
    total cards in hand: 6, % of only 1 target: .393, % of >1 target: .100, 0 target: .507, % of >0: 49.2
    total cards in hand: 7, % of only 1 target: .418, % of >1 target: .134, 0 target: .448, % of >0: 55.2
    total cards in hand:10, % of only 1 target: .444, % of >1 target: .256, 0 target: .300, % of >0: 70.0


    you will notice that that when comparing weapons the ration per deck is even ( x2.5) but the probability is much better in the 100 card deck. (8 cards for 40 and 20 cards for 100)

    the draw cant be compared as such as certain liberties had to be taken, meaning, there wasnt enough actually draw to give me the proper ratio so i added other cards like sk, bella and dm to help. the ratio is closer to X3. the becomes a little more even with the 100 card deck fairing better early game

    item destruction, which is an even x2.5 ratio, slightly favors the 40 (4 cards for 40 and 10 cards for 100)

    3cc allies are a little off, with a ratio over x3 and GREATLY favors the 100 card deck.




    BUT, you are asking, "what does that mean"

    well, ill tell you

    lets take weapons for example. in the 40, you have a better chance of drawing a specific card, say a JD. thats important because draw a specific card in the 100 is, well, difficult.

    BUT, in the hundred card deck, when the ratios are even at x2.5 for the hundred (8 weapons vs 20 weapons) the chance to draw a weapon is better in the 100 card deck than the 40. meaning the 100 card deck will draw a weapon before the 40, let alone a specific weapon like JD.

    and i believe this is why a n00b can actually win with a monster deck. play the cards as they come with a better probability overall to draw a "general" card, not specific one, and they can win.

    plus the whole board control/board wipe thing is way off giving a very good advantage to the 100 card deck over the 40. you can slap down those allies, lose them and replace them all the next turn.
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  4. #44
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    Quote Originally Posted by Caitlyn0 View Post
    Total allies: 40 Total Other: 60 Total Cards: 100
    [...]
    3cc ALLIES: instance: 20
    total cards in hand: 6, % of only 1 target: .403, % of >1 target: .345, 0 target: .252, % of >0: 74.8
    total cards in hand: 7, % of only 1 target: .375, % of >1 target: .426, 0 target: .198, % of >0: 80.1
    total cards in hand:10, % of only 1 target: .268, % of >1 target: .637, 0 target: .095, % of >0: 90.5
    [...]

    WEAPONS: 20 (same as 3cc allies, DUAL WIELD is counted)

    [..]
    COMPARE SOME OF THAT WITH A FEW SAMPLES FROM THE 40 (41) CARD DECK

    [...]
    TOTAL DRAW: instance: 8 (TOTAL WEAPONS ARE 8 AS WELL)
    total cards in hand: 6, % of only 1 target: .420, % of >1 target: .344, 0 target: .236, % of >0: 76.4
    total cards in hand: 7, % of only 1 target: .389, % of >1 target: .431, 0 target: .180, % of >0: 81.9
    total cards in hand:10, % of only 1 target: .265, % of >1 target: .659, 0 target: .076, % of >0: 92.4
    [...]
    you will notice that that when comparing weapons the ration per deck is even ( x2.5) but the probability is much better in the 100 card deck. (8 cards for 40 and 20 cards for 100)
    I'm not getting that last comment. The probabilities in the top half (100 cards) are higher than those in the bottom half (40 cards).
    As quoted above: the prob of getting at least one weapon in the first 6 cards in a 100-card deck with 20 weapons is 74.8%, in a 40-card deck with 8 weapons it's 76.4% which is higher.
    So how can you conclude that in the 100-card deck you have a better chance of drawing a weapon? What am I missing?!

  5. #45
    Senior Member Caitlyn0's Avatar
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    maybe i got my numbers mixed up there... but it is very close... so much so that it doesnt matter, its virtually the same percentage. i might have been looking at the 3cc allies when i made that statement.
    lil dark riding hood Queen of A1 Evolution in Theory
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  6. #46
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    iam 18 cards short dammit ;/

    lol i made the deck with the 82cards i had and desiced to play vs AI i drew 4 brutalis first hand! What are the chances of this ?
    Last edited by Lacoste; 01-13-2012 at 05:30 PM.

  7. #47
    Senior Member Caitlyn0's Avatar
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    incredibly low, like .00something low. there is a thought going around that when you first put a deck together or make a change to a deck, that the very first "shuffle" is a little askew.

    what was it like the second time?
    lil dark riding hood Queen of A1 Evolution in Theory
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    Evolution in Theory

  8. #48
    Senior Member Caitlyn0's Avatar
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    sorry, but i need to bump this with certain decks doing really well at larger number, i think the math discussion here is relevant
    lil dark riding hood Queen of A1 Evolution in Theory
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  9. #49
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    This made me giggle... She was so committed and really intelligent. Will be missed x

  10. #50
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    the math for bigger decks started quick a long time ago. Atomzed started it i think and then Caitlyn posted this deck.

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