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Thread: Logan 100

  1. #21
    DP Visionary Atomzed's Avatar
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    Sorry fate whisperer, like i said, i not sure of the formula you saying.

    In any case, this doesn't resolve your accusation that the hypergeometric calculators are wrong. Which is a serious thing, bec if the calculators are wrong, then we should get the thread remove from the sticky. Did you read the sticky thread started by shannon? A lot of ppl are using it for calculations.

    @caitlyn0, your examples/ numbers are confusing me! Which is part of the property of the deck isn't it?
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  2. #22
    Junior Member Fate's Whisper's Avatar
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    40 card deck (excluding hero) means that hero is not inlcuded in those 40 cards.
    Both calculators and my formula are ok. The result is the same.
    I do not aim with my hand. He who aims with his hand has forgotten the face of his father.
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  3. #23
    DP Visionary Atomzed's Avatar
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    ah, I read it differently.

    To me,
    40 card deck excluding hero meant 40-card deck + 1 hero.

    40 card deck including hero meant 39-card deck + 1 hero.

    That could explain the differences in the stats.
    A1's Mustard-Seed Knight of Hope (IGN:A1 atomzed)
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  4. #24
    Junior Member Fate's Whisper's Avatar
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    To me it means excatly the same. And it always did.

    Strangely, you used population size of 39 cards in calculators, when i clearly stated, that I am considering case of 40 cards excluding hero. (and now you admit, that for you it means 40-card deck + 1 hero).
    I do not aim with my hand. He who aims with his hand has forgotten the face of his father.
    I aim with my eye.

    I do not shoot with my hand. He who shoots with his hand has forgotten the face of his father.
    I shoot with my mind.

    I do not kill with my gun. He who kills with his gun has forgotten the face of his father.
    I kill with my heart.

  5. #25
    DP Visionary Atomzed's Avatar
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    @fate whisperer
    I re-run the analysis again, in case i have previously input the numbers wrongly.

    This are the values I have input:-
    a) Population size = 39
    b) No of success in population = 4
    c) Sample size = 7
    d) No of success in sample = 0

    Probability that 0 card is obtained = 43.71%
    Probability that at least 1 card is obtained = 56.2%.

    Quote Originally Posted by Fate's Whisper View Post
    False.

    Chances to have at least 1 3cc ally in first seven cards are:
    53,3% in case of 40 card (excluding hero) deck with 4 3cc allies cards
    Which is different from the figure that you have quoted in the previous post. The values from the calculator don't tally with the value of your formula. Something must be wrong.

    I suggest that we take this off Caitlyn0 thread. I have already pm-ed you and we can discuss this further.
    A1's Mustard-Seed Knight of Hope (IGN:A1 atomzed)
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  6. #26
    Senior Member GS's Avatar
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    Or you guys could go discuss this in the guest area of a1 forum. I find this really interesting.
    Signature for rent.

  7. #27
    DP Visionary Atomzed's Avatar
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    Hehe, it's ok GS, the 2 of us have resolved the problem through pm.

    Both formulas are correct. I used different inputs and fate whisperer posted the probability in the wrong order for his original posts. So yeah, the sticky thread is correct and I don't need to change my calculators.
    A1's Mustard-Seed Knight of Hope (IGN:A1 atomzed)
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  8. #28
    Senior Member Caitlyn0's Avatar
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    well, glad thats over and your both right

    BUT, if you continue to analyze my deck, please use the proper sample for population totals and not the example i gave to help the less statistically inclined to build a 100 card deck. again, the 4 jasmine to 10 3cc allies using the 2.5 modifier was just for them and the sample isnt correct for this deck. the sample should be 6 3cc allies for the 40 card deck i "enlaged" and 16 for the 100 card deck (which should of been 15 if i had used the 2.5 modifier) when i built this deck, i ignored specific cards and just looked at a group of cards, like total 3cc allies or all draw engines, etc. take the draw engines, there are 22 of them in this 100 card deck (4 bella, 4 SK, 4 BL, 4 Bazaar, 4 BS and 2 DR) some of those cards also fit different samples, like total allies, 5cc allies or weapons (i had no 4cc allies in the 40, so bella only fits the total allies group and draw engine)

    then there is a large group i called "active board control" which includes medusil, pb, deathmage, all weapons (because of logan's ability), dual wield (because it can become weapon and provides a damage boost). CB... and i believe i included war banner and kp into this number as well. i cant remember if i added hellsteed.

    so please, any further analysis, and i welcome it, please use the proper samples
    Last edited by Caitlyn0; 12-16-2011 at 01:42 PM.
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  9. #29
    Senior Member Caitlyn0's Avatar
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    oh, and yes, the deck is meant to be confusing Atomized thats the main power of the deck, along with deception. anyone who doesnt come to the forum will be fooled as well as those who do and havent seen this thread. they will go, "cool, a n00b, easy win"

    and nobody noticed the secondary name of the deck?
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  10. #30
    DP Visionary Atomzed's Avatar
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    Yah Caitlyn I took a closer look and the probability for 3cc allies were 70+%. Looks quite interesting so will look at it again.
    A1's Mustard-Seed Knight of Hope (IGN:A1 atomzed)
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