Logan 100

[Fate's Whisper]

Even then you got the probability wrong.

For 40 card deck at T2 , the probability is 56.2%.

For a 100 card deck at T2, the prob is 53.7%.

My numbers are correct. You are the one, who is wrong.
Are you sure that you're cosidering deck with 40/100 cards excluding hero?

My formula for 40 card deck is:
Chance of not drawing 3cc ally in first seven cards = C(36;7)*C(4,0)/C(40,7)=44,8%
Chance of drawing at least one 3cc ally in first seven cards=1-44,8%=55,2%

where C(n,k) is a number of k-combinations from a given set of n elements.

Good luck in finding mistake in your formula.

[Nickey293]

Great deck. Thanks for sharing...

[Hunter]

This deck is super fun ^^

[Atomzed]

My numbers are correct. You are the one, who is wrong.
Are you sure that you're cosidering deck with 40/100 cards excluding hero?

My formula for 40 card deck is:
Chance of not drawing 3cc ally in first seven cards = C(36;7)*C(4,0)/C(40,7)=44,8%
Chance of drawing at least one 3cc ally in first seven cards=1-44,8%=55,2%

where C(n,k) is a number of k-combinations from a given set of n elements.

Good luck in finding mistake in your formula.

Strangely, I also think i right and you're wrong Let's work through my method.

I'm using the hypergeometric calculator. See this thread

So to get the probability of at least 1 card, you set the following parameters:
Population size = 39/99
No of success = 4/10
Sample size = 7 (since you wanted 7 cards on hand only)
No of success in sample = 0.

This will give you the probability of getting ZERO 3cc ally at T3.
Cumulative Probability: P(X > 0) gives you the probability of getting at least 1 card, which is 56.2%.

If this method is wrong, it will be good if you can explain why this is wrong. Cos its a sticky thread, and i have been using the hypergeometric calculator for a long time. I would hate it if i'm using the wrong method

Btw, though i not very sure about the C(n,k) formula, shouldn't it be 39 instead of 40 and 35 instead of 36? Cos the hero card is not shuffled in at all.
Did you include the hero card in for the shuffling too?Maybe that explains why the odds are different, assuming your method is correct.

[Caitlyn0]

OK, OK, OK... haha... put the math away. i only used it to build the deck and determine possibilities. the numbers are slightly off mainly because i had to make a few small adjustments. (and the correct numbers to use are 40 and 100, i made them 41 and 101 with the hero to make the math easier)

yesm you could have a hand filled with all 5cc cards... that can happen with most decks. the percentage chance of it happening isnt that much different than with a 40 card deck.

so put the math away and go try it out. you are gonna have a bad draw once in awhile, same with any other deck... the two best things about the deck: it works while your ooponent cant anticipate what you are going to do... and its a LOT of fun

@nickey and hunter: glad you are enjoying it

[Atomzed]

@caitlyn0, yah agree that i shouldn't hijack your deck to discuss stats... though if the hypergeometric calculator is wrong, then we have better remove it from the sticky!

with regard your deck, glad to see you using the probability concept to craft it. But definitely too big for my taste. I only prefer slightly bigger decks... :P

[Dima]

it would be fun to make 100 card tourney =))

[Caitlyn0]

oh and you used the initial number of success wrong. its not 4/10 its 6/16. the 4/10 was just an example i used to help explain how to decide the number of cards to put in the deck. the actual number of 3cc cards in each is 6 for the 40 and 16 in the 100

[GS]

This would be an amusing deck heh.

[Fate's Whisper]

Btw, though i not very sure about the C(n,k) formula, shouldn't it be 39 instead of 40 and 35 instead of 36? Cos the hero card is not shuffled in at all.
Did you include the hero card in for the shuffling too?Maybe that explains why the odds are different, assuming your method is correct.

I thought it was clearly stated in my previous posts…

False.
Chances to have at least 1 3cc ally in first seven cards are:
53,3% in case of 40 card (excluding hero) deck with 4 3cc allies cards
55,2% in case of 100 card (excluding hero) deck with 10 3cc allies cards

My numbers are correct. You are the one, who is wrong.
Are you sure that you're considering deck with 40/100 cards excluding hero?

Problem solved. Please read my posts carefully.