Howdy Shadow Era peoples! Mojumbo here today to tell you all about the balancing of our new expansion set Dark Prophecies. In particular, I’m going to focus on how we go about making balance decisions based off tracking win rates, tracking card usage stats, and playing/watching games. Expect to learn a few interesting factoids from this article!

Live Server Stats

First off, to get an idea of how balanced a given metagame is we need to keep track of all of the heroes’ win rates. Of course, we track how often the heroes are being used as well so we can determine which heroes are very popular and which ones aren’t as popular. For example, Eladwen is currently the most popular hero as she represents 10% of games played. She currently holds a win rate of 51%.

Now it’s great to know that the most popular hero is only winning 51% of the time but there is more useful data we can extract out of this data to make it even more meaningful. For instance, we can determine Eladwen’s win rate both going first and going second: Eladwen wins 52% of the time going first and 49% of the time going second. The fact Eladwen wins 3% more going first than going second does imply a minor advantage to going first (but 3% isn’t too bad still) but we can then design cards like Layarian Seductress that offer an advantage when you’re going second over going first.

After we have determined the heroes’ overall win rates we then break it down hero by hero. For example, our live server stats suggest that Eladwen’s best matchup is against Elementalis and her worst matchup is against Amber. Using this data, we could determine that Eladwen needs tools in the near future to help out against Amber’s big weapons and likewise Elementalis may need tools to better fight off Eladwen’s mage prowess.

Here are some interesting factoids about Dark Prophecies balance:
• We strive to have every hero producing a 50% win rate +/- 5% (between 45-55%).
• No hero is currently holding a win rate of 55% or higher.
• First turn advantage generally amounts to a difference of 2-3% higher win rate going first.
• In terms of games played, the hero pool is quite diverse in this metagame.
• The stats don’t include games where people leave too early (where you gain no gold or xp).
• The average time for a game across all heroes is between 11-14 minutes.

Card Usage Stats

Naturally, balance goes further than just looking at individual hero win rates. We also have to look at the popularity of individual cards. To do this we look at how often a specific card was used when it was legal for it to be in a deck. After that we determine how many copies of the card were being used. For example, we could determine that Ley Line Nexus is really popular as a 2-of in your deck whereas a card like Ironhide Karash is really popular as a 4-of in your deck.

This data is important because it helps determine why some heroes are producing high win rates and also validates the feedback we receive from the community. If a card is rarely being used but is being considered overpowered by a few then it likely needs more active coverage. If a card is being used heavily and is being considered overpowered consistently, then it probably is.

Here are some interesting factoids about Dark Prophecies card usage:
• Aldon the Brave is currently the most used card
• Cloak of obscurity is current the least used card

Balance Testing

Stats can only take you so far. After we have run the numbers it’s time for us to get testing. Testing can both mean playing the game or watching replays of other players playing. The Player Focus Group (PFG) is invaluable when it comes to generating lots of highly skilled replays to watch so we can determine how powerful a card is (or isn’t) when it is used correctly. From there, we can make the necessary nerfs/buffs as required.

It is only after we have live server stats, card usage stats, and have done the requisite balance testing that we can make informed decisions to change cards on the live server. We are happy with how Dark Prophecies has turned out from a balance perspective and hope you are too! There are lots of new powerful cards and combinations that will allow you to make new decks that weren’t quite viable during Call of the Crystals.

Well that does it for my look at Dark Prophecies balance. Hope you enjoyed the article, good luck in your games, and make sure you have fun! This is Mojumbo signing out.