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  • Dark Prophecies Balance 101

      • Dark Prophecies Balance 101

        by
        Mojumbo
        Published on 05-24-2013 05:22 AM
        8 Comments


        Howdy Shadow Era peoples! Mojumbo here today to tell you all about the balancing of our new expansion set Dark Prophecies. In particular, I’m going to focus on how we go about making balance decisions based off tracking win rates, tracking card usage stats, and playing/watching games. Expect to learn a few interesting factoids from this article!

        Live Server Stats

        First off, to get an idea of how balanced a given metagame is we need to keep track of all of the heroes’ win rates. Of course, we track how often the heroes are being used as well so we can determine which heroes are very popular and which ones aren’t as popular. For example, Eladwen is currently the most popular hero as she represents 10% of games played. She currently holds a win rate of 51%.

        Now it’s great to know that the most popular hero is only winning 51% of the time but there is more useful data we can extract out of this data to make it even more meaningful. For instance, we can determine Eladwen’s win rate both going first and going second: Eladwen wins 52% of the time going first and 49% of the time going second. The fact Eladwen wins 3% more going first than going second does imply a minor advantage to going first (but 3% isn’t too bad still) but we can then design cards like Layarian Seductress that offer an advantage when you’re going second over going first.

        After we have determined the heroes’ overall win rates we then break it down hero by hero. For example, our live server stats suggest that Eladwen’s best matchup is against Elementalis and her worst matchup is against Amber. Using this data, we could determine that Eladwen needs tools in the near future to help out against Amber’s big weapons and likewise Elementalis may need tools to better fight off Eladwen’s mage prowess.

        Here are some interesting factoids about Dark Prophecies balance:
        • We strive to have every hero producing a 50% win rate +/- 5% (between 45-55%).
        • No hero is currently holding a win rate of 55% or higher.
        • First turn advantage generally amounts to a difference of 2-3% higher win rate going first.
        • In terms of games played, the hero pool is quite diverse in this metagame.
        • The stats don’t include games where people leave too early (where you gain no gold or xp).
        • The average time for a game across all heroes is between 11-14 minutes.

        Card Usage Stats

        Naturally, balance goes further than just looking at individual hero win rates. We also have to look at the popularity of individual cards. To do this we look at how often a specific card was used when it was legal for it to be in a deck. After that we determine how many copies of the card were being used. For example, we could determine that Ley Line Nexus is really popular as a 2-of in your deck whereas a card like Ironhide Karash is really popular as a 4-of in your deck.

        This data is important because it helps determine why some heroes are producing high win rates and also validates the feedback we receive from the community. If a card is rarely being used but is being considered overpowered by a few then it likely needs more active coverage. If a card is being used heavily and is being considered overpowered consistently, then it probably is.

        Here are some interesting factoids about Dark Prophecies card usage:
        • Aldon the Brave is currently the most used card
        • Cloak of obscurity is current the least used card

        Balance Testing

        Stats can only take you so far. After we have run the numbers it’s time for us to get testing. Testing can both mean playing the game or watching replays of other players playing. The Player Focus Group (PFG) is invaluable when it comes to generating lots of highly skilled replays to watch so we can determine how powerful a card is (or isn’t) when it is used correctly. From there, we can make the necessary nerfs/buffs as required.

        It is only after we have live server stats, card usage stats, and have done the requisite balance testing that we can make informed decisions to change cards on the live server. We are happy with how Dark Prophecies has turned out from a balance perspective and hope you are too! There are lots of new powerful cards and combinations that will allow you to make new decks that weren’t quite viable during Call of the Crystals.

        Well that does it for my look at Dark Prophecies balance. Hope you enjoyed the article, good luck in your games, and make sure you have fun! This is Mojumbo signing out.


        This article was originally published in forum thread: Dark Prophecies Balance 101 started by Mojumbo         View original post
        Comments 80 Comments
        1. Jo3yb0i's Avatar
          Jo3yb0i - 05-24-2013, 02:08 PM
          I love stats even that 3% difference can mean more eladwen users in qm
        1. MacLeod - 05-24-2013, 02:13 PM
          Quote Originally Posted by Alejandro View Post
          I think that balance if not divide in groups can not be correct. The designer Team must see which decks are playing in differents ratings if there arent for instance ant deck nish in 300+ Rating But there are 1000000 in 150-220 Rating its bad information says that nish is balance because there are 49% players With nish. When be able to that some people start With that deck But its imposible up to hight rank and leave this hero.

          Its my opinion sorry my english is not good But i have estadistic university studios.
          Another more lively example for the same point.

          Let two monkeys play SE. No matter which heroes you assigned to the monkeys, the win rate will be about 50%. And it also doesn't matter which monkey goes 1st!

          But does that mean SE is perfectly balanced?
        1. Killtrend's Avatar
          Killtrend - 05-24-2013, 02:38 PM
          This leads to me believe that a bunch of newbs are playing with popular heroes, dragging down the win rate. It's probably also not intelligent to add stats in for cards played via a starter deck.

          This also leads me to believe that some heroes have HORRENDOUS win rates. In the history of the game, I bet some heroes haven't scraped 40% maybe less.
        1. Demnchi's Avatar
          Demnchi - 05-24-2013, 02:48 PM
          Good Read Mojumbo, some interesting information in there.

          As for the discussion going on here, I'm pretty sure there are more factors than simply statistics that go into designing this game. This article was just explaining how they use them. Certain cards are made to fit certain criteria. For example, I'm pretty sure that cards such as Extra Sharp are created to be included in the starter deck to help teach the fundamentals of attachment cards. If that was Extra Sharp's purpose, then it doesn't need to be better. Could it have been better for high level play? Sure. Did it have to be? No, I don't believe so.

          Also, remember that competitive play isn't the only play either and that a goal should be to have a balanced game at all levels of play. To me, this means looking at all of it and part of it at the same time. Considering how one card could be played at any level of play and consider its impact across them all. Taking all that into consideration should lead to a more balanced game overall impo.
        1. pyrogene's Avatar
          pyrogene - 05-24-2013, 03:08 PM
          Quote Originally Posted by Demnchi View Post
          Also, remember that competitive play isn't the only play either and that a goal should be to have a balanced game at all levels of play. To me, this means looking at all of it and part of it at the same time. Considering how one card could be played at any level of play and consider its impact across them all. Taking all that into consideration should lead to a more balanced game overall impo.
          Competitive play isn't the only play but balancing based on low level play is illogical. You can't balance a game where people are not yet making the right rational decisions. You just have to make sure competitive play is balanced and low-level play would even out over time. Case in point: Mind Control. You get tons of complaints about this card by newer players but since it is considered balanced at the competitive level so nothing should be changed about it.

          MacLeod's example may be a little harsh but I do think it strikes the point.
        1. Demnchi's Avatar
          Demnchi - 05-24-2013, 03:12 PM
          Quote Originally Posted by pyrogene View Post
          Competitive play isn't the only play but balancing based on low level play is illogical. You can't balance a game where people are not yet making the right rational decisions. You just have to make sure competitive play is balanced and low-level play would even out over time. Case in point: Mind Control. You get tons of complaints about this card by newer players but since it is considered balanced at the competitive level so nothing should be changed about it.

          MacLeod's example may be a little harsh but I do think it strikes the point.
          My point wasn't making decisions based solely on just low level play, it was that all levels of play need to be considered. You merely misunderstood my point. Just because players complain about mind control doesn't mean its imbalanced at that level of play they are associated with. So it doesn't need to be changed in that manner.

          But like I said, there is more to balancing this than just level of play and statistics as well. What those factors are, I'm not 100% certain either, but I'm sure there is far more to it than just that.
        1. pyrogene's Avatar
          pyrogene - 05-24-2013, 03:17 PM
          Quote Originally Posted by Demnchi View Post
          My point wasn't making decisions based solely on just low level play, it was that all levels of play need to be considered. You merely misunderstood my point. Just because players complain about mind control doesn't mean its imbalanced at that level of play they are associated with.
          I think there is a distinction between balance decisions and design decisions. Balance decisions imo should not even consider low level play. Design on the other hand has to be such that the game is playable at all levels.
        1. ahmet476's Avatar
          ahmet476 - 05-24-2013, 03:20 PM
          Quote Originally Posted by pyrogene View Post
          You just have to make sure competitive play is balanced and low-level play would even out over time.
          I disagree. Not sure balancing the game looking at a small group of players would be good, if it means making the game unberable for the rest of the player base. Balancing the game looking at that and hoping not too many people will get frustrated with it is just wrong imo.

          Good read Mojumbo!
        1. Gondorian's Avatar
          Gondorian - 05-24-2013, 03:26 PM
          Some good points have been raised about the usefulness of the stats. You guys are right that they do not show the whole picture.

          It's for this reason we're careful not to read too much into the stats.

          But having them available can add confidence to what level of balance we thought we already had or highlight potential issues.

          The majority of balancing happens before live server, within DT then PFG, where such large-scale stats are not available.
        1. Demnchi's Avatar
          Demnchi - 05-24-2013, 03:27 PM
          Quote Originally Posted by pyrogene View Post
          I think there is a distinction between balance decisions and design decisions. Balance decisions imo should not even consider low level play. Design on the other hand has to be such that the game is playable at all levels.
          That's a part of balance too. Its true that what I mentioned does deal with some design decisions. However, if the game is not balanced at a certain level of play then it simply isn't a balanced game.

          Ahmet pretty much said the rest. But know I'm not saying that competitive opinions don't hold weight because of non-competative players, but that balancing a game solely on one group (such as competitive players) is not going to yield a fair and fun game for all. (which should be the goal of creating balance)
        1. Killtrend's Avatar
          Killtrend - 05-24-2013, 03:29 PM
          Balancing a game looking at the best players of that game is exactly how you do it actually. It wouldn't make sense to do it any other way.

          Lower level players are just throwing shit at the walls to see what sticks. They have laughably large decks, with poor resource curves and no chance of setting up a draw engine. That's like trying to design a mustang for a 16 year old to drive and repair.
        1. ahmet476's Avatar
          ahmet476 - 05-24-2013, 03:44 PM
          Quote Originally Posted by Killtrend View Post
          Balancing a game looking at the best players of that game is exactly how you do it actually. It wouldn't make sense to do it any other way.

          Lower level players are just throwing shit at the walls to see what sticks. They have laughably large decks, with poor resource curves and no chance of setting up a draw engine. That's like trying to design a mustang for a 16 year old to drive and repair.
          Well, from what I read on OP, Wulven is taking into account all, not only lower ranked player statistics.
        1. MacLeod - 05-24-2013, 03:44 PM
          Quote Originally Posted by Killtrend View Post
          Balancing a game looking at the best players of that game is exactly how you do it actually. It wouldn't make sense to do it any other way.

          Lower level players are just throwing shit at the walls to see what sticks. They have laughably large decks, with poor resource curves and no chance of setting up a draw engine. That's like trying to design a mustang for a 16 year old to drive and repair.
          +1

          If SE is designed for 5-year-old, I would agree fun is a lot more important. See Pokemon for example.

          If SE is designed to be on the level of Poker and maybe even Chess, then balance on the highest skill level is a must.

          I believe any half-decent game will already be well-balanced to casual and new players since they won't care about or know how to exploit the existing imbalance.
        1. pyrogene's Avatar
          pyrogene - 05-24-2013, 03:46 PM
          Quote Originally Posted by Killtrend View Post
          Balancing a game looking at the best players of that game is exactly how you do it actually. It wouldn't make sense to do it any other way.

          Lower level players are just throwing shit at the walls to see what sticks. They have laughably large decks, with poor resource curves and no chance of setting up a draw engine. That's like trying to design a mustang for a 16 year old to drive and repair.
          Again, a little harsh but the gist of it is there. If your game is balanced competitively but for some reason not balanced at lower levels, then it's a design flaw (maybe core cards are too expensive, too steep learning curve etc.).

          The point really is that statistics of low level play is highly misleading for game balance and should pretty much be discarded imo.

          Quote Originally Posted by MacLeod View Post
          +1

          If SE is designed for 5-year-old, I would agree fun is a lot more important. See Pokemon for example.
          Hey, competitive Pokemon is incredibly strategic. Although it's a good example of how the company completely fails at game balance and the community have to resort to unofficial ways to balance the game (tier-list e.t.c.).
        1. ahmet476's Avatar
          ahmet476 - 05-24-2013, 03:48 PM
          Can you say the game is not balanced at competitive level right now? If no, I think they are doing it right.
        1. busti's Avatar
          busti - 05-24-2013, 03:50 PM
          Quote Originally Posted by MacLeod View Post
          Another more lively example for the same point.

          Let two monkeys play SE. No matter which heroes you assigned to the monkeys, the win rate will be about 50%. And it also doesn't matter which monkey goes 1st!

          But does that mean SE is perfectly balanced?
          LOL that is an amazingly perfect example!
          I think it shows quite well that meaningful stats will be gotten by looking at more competent players. For example I can guarantee eladwen has a bigger difference of winrate going first/second than 3 %

          However to be fair i think the biggest basis for balance is pfg and not overall stats
        1. pyrogene's Avatar
          pyrogene - 05-24-2013, 03:53 PM
          Quote Originally Posted by ahmet476 View Post
          Can you say the game is not balanced at competitive level right now? If no, I think they are doing it right.
          SE is relatively well-balanced but I'm pretty sure the stats in Mojumbo's opening are biased. No freaking way Eladwen's FTA is 3% at high level. As such, since we don't have the data, it's impossible for us to know for sure if the game is balanced competitively since it's based on our own anecdotal experience. We are just highlighting the problem with interpreting data like in his opening post.

          Also there are still several heroes that would need help so balance can definitely still be improved.
        1. Pandevmonium's Avatar
          Pandevmonium - 05-24-2013, 04:31 PM
          You can prove whatever you want with a huge amount of numbers, it would be nice to have a little bit of quality other than quantity. So as they suggested stats would count more if you trim out matches played at very low ratings, with oversized decks (unless Millstalker), disconnection and probably even custom games since they're often the more experimental kind of games.
        1. TheSt4lker's Avatar
          TheSt4lker - 05-24-2013, 04:44 PM
          Cloak of obscurity is played less often than Loest's burden?
        1. Drakkon's Avatar
          Drakkon - 05-24-2013, 04:46 PM
          Quote Originally Posted by TheSt4lker View Post
          Cloak of obscurity is played less often than Loest's burden?
          Blame me, I was playing Loest's Burden in my Nishaven. So yeah, no one has yet to use Cloak of Obscurity. One person (myself) attempted to use Loest's Burden.
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